Breakouts and Break-downs

Professional basketball teams naturally fluctuate between winning and losing cycles due to a combination of player development, ageing rosters, salary cap limitations, draft cycles, front office decisions, and coaching changes. These fluctuations can be part of long-term strategic planning, luck, negligence or misfortune. The NSL provides a unique environment for a supercharged cycle of team stages, through frequent and free-flowing movement and less pressure to stay the (or any) course. Sometimes annually, teams can even be seen moving through stages of contention, decline, rebuild, and resurgence, all during the same season.

We are crawling through the slowest months of the calendar for now, surviving off skerricks of news not even worthy of the first few pages. It gives you time to think… which teams are going to fluctuate the most, move furthest from their final 24-25 mark?

The following list will feature six teams - three teams predicted to break out, and three teams predicted to break down.


Break out - Los Angeles Clippers

Say it ain’t so!? Are the Clippers at the precipice of being a legitimately good team?! The team profiles to have a potentially great combination of size, athleticism, and versatility across all positions. With Paolo Banchero as the offensive centerpiece, surrounded by strong defenders like Cason Wallace and Isaiah Hartenstein, a star sidekick in Jalen Williams, and an elite floor spacer like Trey Murphy III, the roster is built for both ends of the floor. And built for winning basketball. The mix of high-IQ playmaking, switchable defense, and transition firepower gives them a tantalising build if 2k falls into place for them. Plus, with most players still young, their ceiling is only rising. If Andrew logs on and puts some time in strategising, I see the Clippers making the playoffs (and skipping the play-in). Put that foot down, Andrew!

Break down - Boston Celtics

Even if it isn’t obvious, the Celtics are positioning themselves for a gap year. Teasing NSL fans for years with their burgeoning potential, the Celtics blueprint is now paused, edited. With Jayson Tatum hurt and Darius Garland gone, the Celtics lose their two best scorers and playmakers. Sengun is a smart big man on offense but struggles on defense and isn’t a top scoring option. Scoot Henderson is talented athletically but still learning how to play at a high level, wracked with inefficient performances. Kuminga and Okongwu bring energy and defense but can’t shoot well or create their own shots. Overall, the team lacks shooting, defense and overall structure of a winning team.

Break out - New York Knicks

With the addition of Kevin Durant (man gets traded A LOT), Smokey trumpeted to the league that he is no longer slumming it; the competitive switch has been flipped, and the pendulum swings violently away from tanking towards contending. KD gives the Knicks the superstar that every true contender requires - a proven elite scorer and clutch performer who can carry the offense in critical moments. Surrounded by strong interior defenders and rim protectors like Jarrett Allen and Daniel Gafford, the team can dominate the paint on both ends. Josh Giddey adds high-level playmaking and size in the backcourt, while Jalen McDaniels brings defensive versatility on the wing. With a smart, experienced GM and a rotation comprised of lengthy, complementary players, I am all in on the Knicks pushing to the top tier of East teams.

Break down - Houston Rockets

Despite having Nikola Jokic, the game's top-rated player and one of the best players of the century, the Rockets will struggle to make the playoffs. This is due to major roster gaps and the loss of Tyrese Haliburton, their top playmaker, a 90-rated player, for the season. Without Haliburton, much of the offensive creation falls to Jokic and Tyrese Maxey, who is better suited as a scorer than a primary facilitator. The team lacks depth, meaning Jokić and Maxey will be forced to play heavy minutes, increasing fatigue and injury risk. The two remaining stars unfortunately don’t get the love of some 2k players, due to lack of athleticism and lack of size. Even at 98 overall, I don’t think Jokic is a feared 2k star. The roster lacks size outside of Jokic, making them vulnerable defensively, especially against bigger backcourts and/or frontcourts. As of last season, Houston only claimed the 8th seed. I fear the Rockets may not have enough balance or consistency to survive in an always tough Western Conference. And I also don’t think Vitt will see it as pressing matter.


Break out - Brooklyn Nets

“FINALLY, IT HAPPENED TO ME! Right in front of my face and I just cannot hide it!” Nets, surely, this time, are poised to more than double their wins this season after trading for Trae Young and OG Anunoby, adding real star power and providing balance to both ends of the floor. Trae gives them elite playmaking and scoring, solving their long-standing issue of offensive creation. I think people have forgotten that the OKC Thunder, who dominated last regular season, were better with Trae than Stephen Curry (!!!). OG brings elite perimeter defense and 3-point shooting, perfectly complementing Trae and partner in offense, Zach LaVine. Derrick Lively anchors the paint with rim protection and lob finishing, while Bobby Portis provides toughness, shooting, and rebounding. That starting lineup really does hum! Rumours of a Vucevic deal will likely see TJ McConnell bring veteran leadership and steady backup point guard play to the Nets, something they have never had. With a strong mix of offensive stars, defensive playmakers and role players, Brooklyn now (finally?) has the talent, depth, and fit to win consistently and put some RESPEKT on their name.

There is no denying that our beloved laddas drew a short straw when his star player, Damian Lillard, tore his achilles last season. Backed into a corner, laddas salvaged what he could and rolled the dice on a rebuild that gained him lottery talent, young size and restocked his trade assets. Unfortunately, as a byproduct, The Phoenix Suns will struggle this season. While they have scorers like Bradley Beal, Shaedon Sharpe and Khris Middleton, the team lacks any real strong defenders and rebounders (granted Maluach and Yang are tallllll). Malik Monk provides scoring at point guard, but there is only one ball, and they have enough shot-happy guys. Who is going to be the glue and play a role to create harmony? With many young players still developing, the Suns won’t have the physicality or experience needed to stop opponents or control rebounds, and may lack the roster to play intelligent, consistent winning ball.